Monday 29 August 2011

YZJ breakout : first target $1.11-1.13 , Genting breakout : first target - 1.64-1.66

YZJ may  meet some initial downward reaction first  at 1.075
Genting may meet some initial downward reaction first at 1.60

Sunday 28 August 2011

Bernanke seeks strong fiscal stimulus package from Obama speech on 5 Sept to complement Fed's monetary stimulus , pleads with tea party Republicans not to sabotage approval process and economic recovery once again in the name of deficit reduction ... leaves new monetary stimulus decision to 20-21 Sept extended fomc .......... The STi should enjoy a small relief rally having bottomed out at 2680 .. before political intimidation from republicans and bad news from Europe comes back to haunt markets again ..

The STi should enjoy a small relief rally having bottomed out at 2680 - first stop 2765  retrace then  2780 retrace then  2815-30  before it suffers a strong but brief  downward reaction there .. then we shall see ...

Kepcorp bottoms out at 8.40  -- first stop 8.62 then retrace then 8.72 retrace then 8.82 -  maintain short-term profit target $9-$9.12 before we see a strong but brief downward reaction there .. then we shall see ...

Genting bottoms out at 1.46 first stop 1.60 retrace then maybe 1.65-1.67  before it suffers a strong but brief downward reaction there .

Wednesday 24 August 2011

Buffet : Dear Readers , sign up as followers of SGX Swing Trader .... and drop Bill E an email if you got time ..


Hi ,

 I have created a follower gadget on the right column ... this is to facilitate discussions between followers  on Google Friend Connect  ...

Regular readers of my blog are encouraged to sign up as followers for the reasons stated below ...

  The market is a dynamic place...  market conditions and sentiment can turn on a dime..  eg..natural disasters  like tsunami  can happen without warning ..

I update my blog usually about once a day , sometimes more frequent , more often less  ..

  writing a blog requires one to commit to a certain macro market view conditioned upon a certain trading time frame ( 1 day - 1 week )  and certain market conditions both implicitly assumed by the blogger but are invariably not explicitly specified for both owing to constraints of time and space and elasticity of supply and demand with respect to time   ..

 this also has the obvious disadvantage that it does not cover certain shorter time frame counter trend  opportunities that present themselves very frequently  ..

for example,  a golden single-day or daytrade shorting opportunity  presented itself this morning at open ..which runs counter to general uptrend ( for dow , shanghai ) or sidetrend with upward bias( for hsi , sti )  to Bernanke's speech on friday but is still very profitable for shorting at open and closing the short by 5pm. I am sure this shorting will not be very profitable if you hold it for 2 days.

 Obviously this short term day-trade bearish event  is quite  confusing or stressful for anyone who is already heavily committed to the general uptrend on the longer timeframe of a few days  to the Bernanke speech at Jackson hole.

  a very profitable trade or view in one time frame can be a very unprofitable one in another time frame esp when one is over committed in his trading capital .

to mitigate the confusion ,   if time and resources permit and response from readers is good , I may provide more real time update on twitter / msn / skype / emails or discussion group but no promise .. ..

to explore the possible formation of a more real time service , please send me a email (  to  bille33333@gmail.com ) stating your skype/msn / facebook / twitter name or address .

if  convenient  , please tell me whether you trade in stocks ( which exchange / platform ? ) , bonds, commodity, forex, options / warrants ,  futures etc ... and the number of years you have been trading , your trading time frame( day trader, swing or position trader )   etc , so that i can tailor the blog to wider interest groups if I got time ( which is always a big constraint ..)   .

if  also convenient , feedback on how you use the blog, whether your trading decisions have benefitted or suffered from reading the blog( in relation to any particular posts , in particular etc ) and /or  any areas for improvement is welcome ...

Last but not least, please click on the "Join this site" gadget on the right column and follow instructions that follow.

If you are hesitant about writing the email , just joining as a follower would be just fine.


 Thank you and Good Luck in your trading  !

 Bill E

Tuesday 23 August 2011

Bill E's take : Markets should enjoy a slow nice rally from here through friday to greet Bernanke's QE3 speech at Jackson hole ....

STi should rise to 2815-2825 after bouncing off from 2685-2720 ,, then retrace   then maybe 2865-85  ...  then retrace  then maybe 2915 if Bernanke presents a "QE3 with shock and awe"

Kepcorp should rise  to $9  after bouncing off from $8.30-40.


Monday 22 August 2011

DJ MARKET TALK: More Downside To YZJ, Cosco's GFC Valuations -Kim Eng ... Bill E's Take : I think Cosco has found a temporary bottom at 96c ...

DJ MARKET TALK: More Downside To YZJ, Cosco's GFC Valuations -Kim Eng   22/08/2011 14:54  
0653 GMT [Dow Jones] China-based shipbuilders Cosco Corp (F83.SG) and  Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (BS6.SG) extend recent falls in heavy volume, down 0.5%  at S$0.970 and off 1.6% at S$0.955 respectively, which Kim Eng puts down to "a  grimmer outlook" for Chinese shipbuilders "in the face of a slower order flow  and rising costs from labour, raw materials and yuan appreciation." It notes  Cosco is down almost 60% from its January 2011 high of S$2.42. It says in 2008,  Cosco traded at trough P/B of 1.44X and applying the same multiple translates to  floor value of S$0.77, based on NAV of S$0.535. It adds Yangzijiang is  acknowledged as one of the more efficient shipyards in China, but "we do not  think it will be immune to the current predicament." Further, Yangzijiang traded  at trough P/B of 1.2X during the global financial crisis, implying a floor value  of S$0.75, though the house notes continued share price weakness has prompted  several insiders, including its Executive Chairman, to resume open market  purchases. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com) 

Bill E's Take : I think Cosco has found a temporary bottom at 96c  .

expecting a small bounce for Dow Jones tonight ...

may see a small short bounce from bottom this morning before market sentiment takes over in the afternoon then we shall see -- small short bounce for Genting at 1.46-1.48 , STi at 2700 -2714 , Cosco at 0.90-0.93 , Kepcorp at 8.42... etc . cross fingers ...

Thursday 18 August 2011

DJ MARKET TALK: Daiwa Starts Cosco Corp. At Underperform,Target S$1.00

DJ MARKET TALK: Daiwa Starts Cosco Corp. At Underperform,Target S$1.00

0057 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Daiwa initiates Cosco Corp. (F83.SG) at Underperform with a S$1.00 target price. "We believe Cosco Corp Singapore's premium to its peers over the past three years is no longer justified, due to: its exposure to bulk shipping, and the operating profit-margin contraction trend," the house says. It expects Cosco's share price to derate from its above-average and higher-than-peers' P/E. It notes the shipbuilder's operating-profit margin has been falling since it started on new offshore rig-building projects; "this trend was confirmed in the 2Q11 results." It adds, Cosco's exposure to bulk shipping is negative given the current oversupply of ships and weak demand due to the global economic slowdown. "Notwithstanding the about 70% fall in the share price since the company announced worse-than-expected 2Q11 results (Aug. 1), we expect further share-price downside from further negative margin surprises." The house prefers Keppel (BN4.SG), rated Outperform, for "its better operational efficiency, earnings outlook, and attractive valuations." Cosco shares closed down 1.8% at S$1.11 Tuesday. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)

Note : Cosco share price and Daiwa's target price is fast approaching our unwavering 90c call made on 10 Aug 2011 ...( despite the recent sharp  general market   rebound  with Buffet bullish prompting  and cosco  analysts'  consensus target calls above $1.20 )   see http://sgxswinger.blogspot.com/2011/08/cosco-70c-here-we-come.html

DJ MARKET TALK: HSI Off 1.1%; Recent Rebound Is Over - Strategist

18/08/2011 15:19 DJ MARKET TALK: HSI Off 1.1%; Recent Rebound Is Over - Strategist
 

0718 GMT [Dow Jones] The HSI is down 1.1% at 20,048.23, extending losses as  it tracks the China bourses, with the Shanghai Composite falling 1.6%. "I think  the recent rebound to Wednesday's high of 20,504 from last week's trough of  18,868 (set Aug. 9) is over. Now, investors are taking profits, triggering some  selling pressure," says Linus Yip, strategist at First Shanghai. He tips the HSI  in a 20,000-20,500 range, and says if it falls below 20,000, its Aug. 9 trough  of 18,868 should serve as a strong support ahead. China Mobile (0941.HK) is down  0.7% at HK$75.10 after reporting its interim results at the midday break. Bank  of Communications (3328.HK) is down 1.7% at HK$5.76, on profit-taking after the  stock rose 5.4% over the past three sessions, ahead of its results, expected  after the market close today. Volume is modest at HK$56.06 billion.  (susanna.tai@dowjones.com) 

Wednesday 17 August 2011

Bloomberg : Most European stocks retreated as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy rejected an expansion of the region’s rescue fund and rebuffed calls for joint euro borrowing.


 
  
Most European stocks retreated as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy rejected an expansion of the region’s rescue fund and rebuffed calls for joint euro borrowing.
By Julie Cruz - Aug 17, 2011 4:37 PM GMT+0800

Most European stocks retreated as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy rejected an expansion of the region’s rescue fund and rebuffed calls for joint euro borrowing. Photographer: Fabrice Dimier/Bloomberg
European stocks fell as German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozyrejected an expansion of the region’s rescue fund and rebuffed calls for joint euro borrowing. Asian shares were little changed and U.S. index futures dropped.

Tuesday 16 August 2011

Bill E's take : Genting may drift slowly towards 1.46 - my technical downswing target ...

DJ MARKET TALK: UOBKH Keeps Genting At Technical Sell; Eyes S$1.40 ..

0239 GMT [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: UOB KayHian maintains its technical Sell call on Genting Singapore (G13.SG), with a revised technical target price of S$1.40. It notes its previous Sell target price on August 5 of S$1.62 was met on Thursday, and the stock is trading below its moving averages; "it may fall further as it is not able to break above S$1.78." The house notes RSI has lost its momentum and both MACD and its signal line are pointing down, "alternatively, investors may consider exiting their shorts if prices break above S$1.85." The house tips resistance at S$1.78 with support at S$1.40. UOB KayHian's institutional research has a fundamental Buy rating on Genting with a target price of S$2.21. Shares are up 1.2% at S$1.69. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)

Bill E's take :  Genting may drift slowly towards 1.46 - my technical downswing target ...

Monday 15 August 2011

DJ MARKET TALK: Genting Singapore 2Q EBITDA Below Expectations

DJ MARKET TALK: Genting Singapore 2Q EBITDA Below Expectations

0032 GMT [Dow Jones] Genting Singapore (G13.SG) may come under pressure after  its 2Q11 earnings fall below expectations; the casino operator posted revenue of  S$728.7 million, down 21% on quarter, while EBITDA was S$347 million, down 34%  on quarter, lower than the S$378 million tipped in a Dow Jones poll of seven  analysts. Daiwa says the sequential falls in revenue and EBITDA were  attributable to a lower win rate of 2.66% (vs 3.8% for 1Q11) and a 13%  on-quarter drop in rolling-chips volume, while the volume for mass market and  slots remained stable. It notes RWS saw its market share in gross gaming revenue  decline to about 50% in 2Q11 (from 60% in 1Q11). "We see the market-share  changes as unexciting for Genting." Morgan Stanley says while Genting's share of  Singapore's gaming market fell, the whole market also declined; "Singapore GGR  dropped by 5% on quarter to US$5.65 billion in 2Q11, a significant divergence  from Macau." The house also remains concerned that Genting's growth is limited  by capacity. Shares closed Friday +2.7% at S$1.725. (matthew.allen@dowjones.com)  

Thursday 11 August 2011